You'd Like To Win The MekaVerse Raffle, Right? How Likely Are They?

For a statistical edge, you probably should have chosen one Meka.

MekaVerse Raffle is the most anticipated NFT release to date, in case you’ve been living under a rock for the past month (no NFT pun intended). This collection has more followers on Twitter and more Discord users than any other NFT project in history, with about 200,000 followers.

Table of Contents

Preventing Gas Wars

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MekaVerse avoided gas wars by using a lottery mechanism after learning from the failures of other highly anticipated NFT drops this year (the Sevens and TIMEPieces).

Users signed a digital contract and connected their MetaMask wallets to register for a chance to win a Meka last night. Users that signed up got the following confirmation:

Additionally, MekaVerse improved its defenses against rogue geniuses. They reduced the registration period from six hours to three hours and forty-five minutes.

They claim that this was done to stop hackers from developing a system-gaming algorithm once raffle registration started.

Winning Techniques

I can’t help but wonder whether there was a method I might have employed to improve my chances of winning given the lengths that MekaVerse went to.

Was there a plan in picking one or two Mekas that may have helped? I’m sure that many lottery players enhanced their chances by registering numerous wallets, but was there a way to help?

Think about it. Assume that MekaVerse is selling every item in its collection at full price and isn’t keeping any Mekas for promotional purposes, marketing, or itself. There are 8,888 potential Mekas available.

The following phase is more speculative because MekaVerse hasn’t disclosed how many people have registered.

Consider this. Assume MekaVerse is charging full price for every item in its collection and isn’t holding onto any Mekas for self-promotion, marketing, or other uses.

There are 8,888 possible Mekas in existence. The next stage involves further speculation because MekaVerse won’t say how many people have signed up.

Realistically, neither of the aforementioned situations will be used to spread MekaVerse. There are two potential winner pools, thus a predetermined amount of Mekas must be divided between each.

There is a chance that 8,889* Mekas may be awarded if the selection procedure was totally randomized among the two application pools.

Randomization techniques assign a particular amount of Mekas to each candidate pool in order to protect against this eventuality.

Only 8,888 Mekas are available, thus if 8,887 Mekas were dispersed and the final randomly chosen winner chose two Mekas, 8,889 Mekas would be won.

I would wager that there were fewer applications for one Meka than there were for two, which would be another statistical advantage for the applicants for one Meka.

Making it easier for the two Meka application pools to compete within the one Meka applicant pool.

Even though MekaVerse hasn’t revealed its approach, this author thinks that the likelihood of getting one Meka is far higher than winning two Mekas, assuming a totally random distribution (50/50) between the two pools.